As of today, the S&P 500 has erased every single loss from the Iran war and hit a new all-time high.

Brent crude peaked at $119. The Dow entered correction. The Nasdaq fell more than 10% from its highs. Consumer confidence hit its lowest reading in history. Gasoline crossed $4 nationally. And today — with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully open, a blockade in place, and the ceasefire expiring in seven days — the S&P 500 is trading above where it started before the first bomb dropped on February 28.

That is either the most impressive display of market resilience in years. Or it is the most dangerous case of collective wishful thinking since the dot-com bubble. Or both.

We have the full picture. Let's get into it.

Let's be precise about what has happened in the last ten trading sessions.

On March 30, the S&P 500 hit its conflict low. From that point to today's new all-time high, the index has gained 9.8%. NBC News noted that this rebound is faster than the recovery after the COVID market crash in 2020 and faster than the rebound after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs rattled markets in April 2025. The Magnificent Seven — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla — are up 14.8% from the March lows. The rest of the S&P 500 is up 8.1%.

Trump told Fox Business on Tuesday that the war is "close to over," that new talks could restart "over the next two days," and that a ceasefire extension may not even be necessary before a deal is reached. A Pakistani official confirmed talks could restart soon. Markets took all of this as confirmation.

But here is what Fortune called the "TACO trade" — Trump Always Chickens Out. Wall Street has now been conditioned across 14 months and at least nine separate de-escalations to buy every Trump-era dip. The market is not evaluating geopolitical outcomes. It is pattern-matching on Trump's historical behavior. Every time he has escalated — tariffs, Iran deadlines, blockades — he has eventually pulled back. The market is pricing in the pull-back before it happens.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson put it cleanly in a Sunday note: "The market trades in advance of the headlines. Investors should do the same." The median S&P 500 company is now growing earnings per share at its fastest pace since 2021. That fundamental story, combined with the TACO pattern, is why a market with $4 gas, a 47.6 Michigan sentiment reading, and a U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is trading at all-time highs.

The faithful steward's honest read: the market may be right. It may also be pricing in an outcome that isn't confirmed yet. The ceasefire expires in seven days. April 22 is the next true test of whether the TACO trade is wisdom or complacency.

This week's bank earnings produced a clear dividing line that every steward needs to understand. Here is the full scorecard:

JPMorgan Chase: Record trading revenue of $11.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. Investment banking up 38%. EPS of $5.94 beat the $5.45 consensus. Net profit up 13% to $16.5 billion. Total revenue $50.5 billion. The one disappointment: management trimmed full-year net interest income guidance to $103 billion from $104.5 billion. That guidance trim sent the stock lower despite the blowout headline.

Citigroup: The clear winner of bank earnings week. Revenue beat across the board. Bond trading and equities both strong. CEO Jane Fraser said: "We're off to an exceptionally strong start in 2026, with revenue up 14% and net income growing 42%. Services had an outstanding quarter with revenue up 17% and Markets crossed $7 billion in revenue." Citi stock rose 2.61%.

Wells Fargo: The loser. Net interest margins narrowed to 2.47%. Both NII and non-interest income missed. CFO warned margins could stay pressured in Q2. Stock fell 5.7% intraday. This is exactly the "spread lender" punishment the market inflicted on anyone whose profit model depends on the gap between what they charge for loans and what they pay on deposits.

Goldman Sachs: Second-best quarter in history (covered Monday). Down 2% despite the blowout on FICC miss.

Bank of America: Reported today. Earnings rose 17% to $1.11 per share, beating the $1.01 forecast. Revenue climbed 7% to $30.3 billion. Investment banking and trading up 21% and 13% respectively. CEO Brian Moynihan provided the most important sentence of bank earnings week: "We saw healthy client activity, including solid consumer spending and stable asset quality, indicating a resilient American economy."

Morgan Stanley: Beat on both lines. EPS of $3.43 versus $3.02 expected. Revenue $20.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year. Wealth management commentary signals that high-net-worth clients are actively investing, not hiding.

The read across all six banks: trading desks thrived on war-driven volatility. The consumer — per Moynihan's commentary — is holding up better than the confidence surveys suggested. But the era of easy net interest income profits is ending as rates plateau. The banks that make money from activity (trading, M&A, advisory) are winning. The banks that make money from spread (net interest margin) are struggling.

For our JPMorgan watch: Dimon's call confirmed consumer credit is stable. Moynihan's comment confirmed the American household is still spending. We are initiating a starter position in JPMorgan today.

While the market celebrated an all-time high, energy consultancy Rystad Energy published a number that stopped us cold this morning.

The cost to repair energy infrastructure damaged during the Iran war has now been estimated at $58 billion. That is more than double Rystad's $25 billion estimate from three weeks ago. The damage includes refineries, processing plants, pipelines, storage facilities, and other critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. Rystad noted that the primary constraint is not capital — it is the availability of specialized equipment and contractors. Equipment and labor crews allocated to new build projects will have to be redirected to repairs, delaying new capacity timelines for years.

Here is why this matters even if peace breaks out tomorrow: a ceasefire stops the bombs. It does not repair the refineries. It does not restart the processing plants. It does not un-damage 58 billion dollars worth of infrastructure. The UAE's energy minister said last week that the Strait is still "restricted, conditioned, and controlled" by Iran even during the ceasefire. The physical oil supply normalization that Chevron CEO Mike Wirth called a "months-long process" is now looking more like a multi-year process given the infrastructure damage.

The market is pricing in a peace deal. It is not pricing in $58 billion of reconstruction, years of supply normalization, or the structural shift in global energy flows that will result from seven weeks of Strait closure. The paper price of oil has fallen from $119 to $91. The physical reality of the energy market is going to lag that paper recovery by far longer than the market currently appreciates.

This keeps our energy positions in place and our TIPS hedge firmly on the books.

Buried inside today's rally is a development that received almost no attention but deserves yours.

Trump again threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today, saying the probe into the Fed's headquarters renovation needs to continue. Two prosecutors were turned away from the Fed building after an unannounced visit. This comes against the backdrop of Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell's replacement when his term expires May 15 — just 30 days away.

Warsh is widely seen as more willing to cut rates faster than Powell. The market has partly rallied this week on the implicit assumption that Warsh's arrival could mean easier monetary policy ahead.

But here is the tension that the faithful steward must hold simultaneously: we are in an environment where inflation expectations just hit 4.8% (the highest in over a year), gasoline is $4.10 nationally, and a blockade is in place that keeps commodity prices elevated. A new Fed chair who moves aggressively to cut rates into that environment risks unanchoring the inflation expectations that Powell specifically said he was watching. The bond market will have something to say about that.

Watch the 10-year Treasury yield this week. If it starts climbing even as stocks hit all-time highs, it is the bond market sending a warning that easy money into an oil shock is not a free lunch.

"Whoever trusts in his riches will fall, but the righteous will flourish like a green leaf."
— Proverbs 11:28

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. Goldman Sachs had its second-best quarter in history. Bank of America says the consumer is resilient. Trump says the war is close to over. And gold is also at an all-time high — which means the fear trade and the greed trade are running simultaneously.

This is the Proverbs 11 moment. When markets hit all-time highs on the back of unresolved wars, $58 billion in infrastructure damage, 4.8% inflation expectations, and a ceasefire that expires in seven days — the faithful steward does not abandon wisdom because the scoreboard looks good.

The righteous flourish like a green leaf. Not because they chase every rally. Because they are deeply rooted. They grow because they are connected to something that doesn't change with every Truth Social post or oil price tick.

Trump says the war is close to over. He may be right. He may not be. Either way, the steward's roots hold.

Forty-six days into a war. A new all-time high in stocks. A new all-time high in gold. The IMF cutting global growth forecasts. A $58 billion repair bill in the Middle East. Trump saying the war is close to over. Seven days until the ceasefire expires.

All of those sentences are simultaneously true today.

The market is telling you to be optimistic. The physical oil market, the infrastructure data, and the inflation readings are telling you to be cautious. The faithful steward holds both stories at the same time — not paralyzed by the tension, but informed by it.

We said on February 28 that this conflict would test every assumption built into the market's 2026 outlook. It has. And the market, remarkably, has passed the test for now — not because the problems are solved, but because it trusts they will be.

That trust may be rewarded. It must also be monitored. Both are true.

Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Stay grounded.

Nathan Grey
Senior Editor
Bread & Bull