We do not send Sunday editions often. When we do, it matters.

This weekend delivered one of the most quietly significant moments in the history of American investing. This week delivers one of the most consequential economic data sets of the year. And Iran's new peace proposal — sent through Pakistani mediators Friday — is still sitting on a desk in Washington waiting for a White House response.

Before the opening bell tomorrow, you should understand all three.

Let's get into it.

Yesterday in Omaha, Nebraska, something happened that deserved more attention than it received.

Greg Abel walked onto the stage at the CHI Health Center arena for the first time as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Before saying a single word about earnings, cash deployment, or AI, he reached up and raised Warren Buffett's jersey to the rafters — emblazoned with the number 60, for sixty years of stewardship. It was the highest honor the arena could give. The crowd rose.

Buffett, 95, watched from his seat in the audience. When he was handed a microphone, he said: "We couldn't have made a better decision. That's been 100% successful. He's doing everything I did and then some. He's the right person."

That sentence from the greatest capital allocator in the history of the modern market deserves to sit with every investor this morning. Not as hype. As signal.

Here is what Abel actually said about the things that matter to markets:

On the $400 billion cash pile: patience. Abel was deliberate and measured. He signaled that Berkshire would not deploy capital simply because it has it — the company will wait for the right price, in the right business, at the right moment. Several thousand seats were empty in an arena that once packed to the rafters for Buffett and Munger. The message was clear: Abel is not Buffett. He is not trying to be. He is building something that will outlast both of them.

On artificial intelligence: cautious and considered. Abel said Berkshire was thinking critically about how to use AI to add value, and that the company was "not going to do AI for the sake of AI." Shareholder Christopher Davis of Hudson Value Partners noted that Berkshire's operating businesses have adopted "the mindset of builders of technology and not just buyers — with coders and engineers on staff." That is a quiet but meaningful signal that the world's largest conglomerate is moving into the AI era deliberately rather than reactively.

On the Iran war's impact on Berkshire: Abel addressed it directly. Berkshire's insurance businesses, railroad (BNSF), and energy subsidiaries have all been affected by elevated fuel costs and supply chain disruption. He did not quantify the damage but acknowledged the impact, which is itself a market signal given Berkshire's breadth across the American economy.

Here is the investment implication for the faithful steward: Warren Buffett's most famous signal is his cash position. At $400 billion — more than 50% of Berkshire's portfolio — it is telling you that the greatest value investor in history does not see enough compelling value in today's market at today's prices to deploy aggressively. That is not a prediction of a crash. It is a posture of patience from someone who has seen every market cycle of the past sixty years.

This week's calendar is one of the most consequential of the entire year. Here is the full picture, day by day, with exactly what to watch and why:

MONDAY, MAY 4 — PALANTIR EARNINGS (after the close)

Palantir reports Q1 2026 results Monday evening. Analysts expect earnings more than double the year-ago level — EPS of $0.28 versus $0.13 — on revenue of $1.54 billion, representing 74% year-over-year growth. Palantir has beaten Wall Street's EPS consensus for 10 consecutive quarters.

But here is the tension: the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 226 and a trailing price-to-sales ratio that recently exceeded 100. No industry leader in history has sustained a P/S ratio above 30. Even a clean beat may not be enough to move the stock higher if the guidance is merely in-line. What we are watching specifically: U.S. commercial revenue growth — this is the signal that enterprise AI adoption beyond the hyperscalers is real and accelerating. Government contract pipeline — with Trump's $1.5 trillion defense budget, Palantir is less a story stock and more a strategic defense vendor. And any commentary on AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption velocity that wasn't in last quarter's numbers.

The stock is down 20% year-to-date heading into Monday's report. That means expectations have been partially reset. Whether the reset was enough depends entirely on what management says about the next two quarters.

TUESDAY, MAY 5 — AMD EARNINGS (after the close) + JOLTS + ISM SERVICES

Advanced Micro Devices reports Tuesday evening. AMD is up 70% over the past month heading into this report — the semiconductor sector had its best month since February 2000 in April, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index surging more than 40%. That kind of momentum means the bar is extraordinarily high.

AMD recently struck a major deal with Meta and announced plans to raise prices on key products. Analysts will be watching whether the company's data center revenue — specifically its MI300 AI accelerator line competing against Nvidia's H100/H200 — is gaining meaningful share. Any indication that AMD is taking even 5-10% of incremental AI chip spend from Nvidia would be a significant narrative shift for the entire semiconductor sector.

Also Tuesday: JOLTS job openings and ISM Services PMI both arrive at 10 a.m. ET. The JOLTS data will tell us whether job openings are declining — an early signal of labor market softening before it shows up in the headline payroll number Friday. ISM Services will tell us whether the service economy is expanding or contracting under $4.30 gas and elevated inflation. A reading below 50 would signal contraction in the sector that accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 6 — DISNEY + UBER + ARM EARNINGS + ADP REPORT

Walt Disney reports before the bell Wednesday. Investors are focused on two things: streaming subscriber growth and theme park performance. Disney's parks business has been one of the most resilient consumer spending categories of the past three years. If park attendance is softening under $4.30 gas and declining consumer confidence, it is a meaningful data point on discretionary spending health. Streaming profitability — specifically, whether Disney+ is generating positive cash flow — is the second key watch.

Uber reports Wednesday as well. As a platform whose entire value proposition runs on affordable fuel, Uber's driver economics under $4.30 gas is the most direct read available on how the gig economy is absorbing the energy shock. Any signal that driver supply is tightening because fuel costs are eating margins will be a warning sign for the labor market's non-traditional workforce.

ADP's private sector employment report also drops Wednesday morning — the first employment read of the week and an important preview of Friday's official payroll number.

THURSDAY, MAY 7 — McDONALD'S + AIRBNB + WEEKLY CLAIMS

McDonald's reports before the bell Thursday. EPS estimate: $2.75. McDonald's is the single best barometer of the American middle and lower-middle class consumer available in the earnings calendar. When people trade down from sit-down restaurants to McDonald's, it shows up in their same-store sales as a positive. When people are so squeezed that they cut even fast food, it shows up as negative comparable sales. In an environment of $4.30 gas and 3.2% core PCE, McDonald's same-store sales number will tell us more about the real American consumer than any confidence survey.

Airbnb reports Thursday after the close. Their commentary on summer travel booking pace — whether the conflict in Iran has suppressed international travel demand or whether the ceasefire optimism is driving a booking recovery — will be the first major read on summer travel health.

FRIDAY, MAY 8 — APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS (8:30 a.m. ET)

This is the most important data release of the week. The April jobs report will be the first payroll data to fully capture the war's economic impact across an entire month — the fuel cost squeeze, the confidence decline, the manufacturing stress. March surprised to the upside at +178,000 — but 76,000 of those jobs came from the Kaiser Permanente strike reversal, a mechanical one-time boost. April has no such tailwind.

BNP Paribas economist Andrew Husby notes that AI-exposed sectors have seen slower hiring but not widespread job losses — describing this as "growing the labor pie with AI." That is a constructive framing. But the broader picture is more complex: a consumer spending at 1.6% annualized versus the 1.9% estimate, diesel at $5.45, and a manufacturing sector absorbing the full weight of supply chain disruption.

Consensus is currently around 130,000-150,000 jobs added. A print below 100,000 would be a genuine warning signal. A print above 175,000 would extend the "resilient labor market" narrative and give the Fed cover to hold rates steady through summer. The unemployment rate — currently 4.3% — is the secondary watch. Any tick toward 4.5% changes the Fed conversation significantly.

Before Friday's official number, investors will also receive Challenger job cut data Thursday and ADP Wednesday — use both as directional guides heading into the official release.

Friday's market rally was powered in part by reports that Iran sent a new peace proposal through Pakistani mediators responding to the latest U.S. amendments to a draft agreement. Oil fell sharply. The Russell 2000 surged 2.21%.

As of this writing Sunday morning, the White House has not publicly responded.

Trump told reporters Friday: "No one knows the status of the talks aside from myself and a handful of others." That phrasing is now a familiar signal — it means private negotiations are advancing even as the public posture remains opaque. The same language preceded every previous de-escalation moment since February 28.

Here is what the faithful steward needs to carry into Monday morning: if a White House response to Iran's proposal emerges over the weekend — whether positive or negative — it will be the first thing markets price on Monday's open. A positive response sends oil lower, airlines and tech higher, and extends April's momentum into May. A rejection or silence sends oil back toward $120 and tests the market's conviction that the TACO trade always works.

Watch Truth Social tonight and tomorrow morning before the bell. It remains the fastest market-moving communication channel available.

"I have learned, in whatever state I am, to be content."
— Philippians 4:11

We opened the very first issue of Bread & Bull with this verse. We return to it today — not because the circumstances are the same, but because the discipline it requires is.

On February 28, the war had just begun and markets were in freefall. Contentment then meant staying calm and clear-eyed in the face of fear. Today, after the best month since 2020, contentment means something different — it means not becoming complacent in prosperity. Not chasing every rally. Not abandoning the hedges that protected us when oil hit $126. Not forgetting that Buffett's successor just told us he sees $400 billion worth of reasons to be patient.

Paul wrote Philippians 4:11 from prison. He was not describing a passive acceptance of circumstances. He was describing a disciplined, trained, practiced state of mind — one that does not swing between euphoria and despair with every market close. That discipline, applied to stewardship, is the entire foundation of Bread & Bull.

April rewarded it. May will test it again. The discipline does not change between seasons.

Enjoy your Sunday. We will be here Monday morning with the full picture.

Nathan Grey
Senior Editor
Bread & Bull