What a week it has been.

The market this week is finishing up for its best weekly performance in nearly a year. And yet everything that made this week great is still fragile, unresolved, and dependent on what happens in a conference room in Pakistan tomorrow morning.

Let's wrap the week and set up what comes next.

This morning's March Consumer Price Index report was the most important economic data release since the war began. Here is what it said:

Headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month — the highest single-month reading since mid-2022. Year-over-year, headline inflation jumped to 3.3% — the highest since May 2024. The energy index surged 10.9% in a single month. Gasoline prices rose 21% in March alone — the largest monthly increase in data going back to 1967.

The more important number for the Fed is core CPI — which strips out food and energy. Core came in at +0.2% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year. That is the number markets were most relieved about. Core did not explode. That is the only reason stocks are not down sharply today.

But here is the critical framing that every steward needs to carry into next week: this reading is only a partial invoice.

The March CPI captured gasoline prices through mid-March. The full weight of oil above $100 — the peak of the conflict — is not yet fully reflected in this data. Ryan Weldon, Investment Director at IFM Investors, said it plainly: "The headline increase marked the fastest increase in four years and should serve as a warning to the markets, as higher oil prices flow through to the core components over the next few months."

Jamie Cox at Harris Financial was even more direct: "March core CPI doesn't yet reflect the reality of the oil supply shock. The effects in April are now more likely to be worse."

And the University of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations — also released this morning — moved sharply higher. Consumers are not waiting for the official data. They are already adjusting their behavior.

The Fed is now in an impossible position that Powell's Harvard speech did not fully resolve: inflation is heading higher just as the labor market is softening. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting lands before any of this is fully resolved. Rates are staying at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29. The real question is whether they stay there through summer — or whether April's CPI forces a conversation nobody wants to have.

Tuesday night's ceasefire announcement said Iran would allow safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. By Thursday morning, that statement had come apart in the details.

The Strait remains largely blocked. Iran has designated two "safe routes" through the waterway — but they require coordination with Iranian armed forces, avoidance of possible mines, and passage under the supervision of Tehran's military. That is not a reopened strait. It is a managed, conditional, Iranian-controlled corridor. Trump accused Iran of doing "a very poor job" reopening the waterway. Iran's foreign minister said conditions of the ceasefire were being violated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

The physical consequences are stark. Goldman Sachs trimmed its Q2 Brent forecast to $90 under a base case that assumes Hormuz flows gradually resume this weekend. But Goldman's severe scenario — if the Strait remains restricted for another month — puts Brent at $115-$120 in Q3. Oil already bounced back toward $97 on Thursday. The paper price moved 17% in a day. The physical supply has not moved at all.

Chevron's CEO said it weeks ago and it bears repeating: even once the Strait reopens, Middle East oil and gas production faces a months-long normalization process. Refineries that shut down need to restart. Tankers need to be rerouted, insured, and crewed. The world will not wake up the morning after a peace agreement to find the energy market fully healed.

For the steward who took profits in energy this week: well done. For those still holding — the thesis has not fully expired.

As this issue goes to press, Vice President JD Vance is en route to Islamabad, accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's team — expected to be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — is already in Pakistan.

Pakistan has set what Al Jazeera describes as a "modest goal": not a peace deal, not a final framework, but an agreement to keep talking. A former Pakistani envoy put it plainly: "The metric of success should be an agreement to continue this process in search of a solution. It will not happen in a couple of days."

That is a realistic and important framing. We should not expect a full resolution from one weekend of talks. What we should watch for:

First, whether both sides show up with genuine mandates to negotiate or whether one side is simply buying time. Iran's conditions — U.S. military withdrawal from the region, sanctions relief, and continued Iranian involvement in Strait management — are far from what Washington has offered. The gap is wide.

Second, whether Israel's strikes in Lebanon derail the talks before they begin. Iran's foreign minister has warned Tehran could abandon the ceasefire entirely if Israeli strikes continue. Hezbollah launched fresh attacks on Israeli soldiers in Lebanon overnight. If Israel conducts a major strike while Vance is at the table in Islamabad, the session ends.

Third, whether Vance's tone matches his rhetoric. He said before boarding Air Force Two: "If they're going to try to play us, they're going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive." That is not the language of someone entering a trust-building first session.

The ceasefire exists. The talks are happening. Both of those things were impossible to imagine six weeks ago. But the gap between a two-week pause and a durable peace remains enormous.

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report next week on April 13 and 14 respectively. We told you Wednesday to wait for these before making decisions on financial sector exposure. Here is what we are listening for.

The narrative shift at both banks is structural and fascinating. Both institutions are pivoting away from the passive windfall of elevated net interest income — which has driven profits for three years — toward fee-based revenue from investment banking, M&A advisory, and debt capital markets. Goldman analysts are projecting a 33-41% jump in M&A advisory fees. JPMorgan is expected to show an 18% increase in investment banking revenues, driven by the massive wave of corporate debt issuance funding AI infrastructure.

Here is the twist nobody is talking about: the Iran war may have accidentally helped Wall Street's trading desks. Heavy client hedging in gold, energy futures, and volatility products kept trading revenues elevated throughout the conflict. What hurt Main Street — elevated oil, rising inflation, falling consumer confidence — created exactly the kind of market turbulence that bank trading desks monetize.

But we are listening for the consumer credit story above all else. If JPMorgan signals rising delinquencies in credit cards or auto loans — the first evidence that $4+ gas and falling confidence is hitting household balance sheets — it changes our Q2 positioning significantly. If Dimon says the consumer held up — we add.

Do not miss these calls. They are the most important investor communications of the month.

"For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven."
— Ecclesiastes 3:1

This has been an extraordinary week. A ceasefire nobody believed would come. A market rally nobody fully trusted. An inflation reading that confirmed the damage done. And a diplomat boarding a plane to Pakistan tonight, carrying the weight of a negotiation the world is watching.

Ecclesiastes does not promise that every season is comfortable. It promises that every season has its purpose — and that the wise person learns to recognize which season they are in and act accordingly.

We are in a season of transition. Not a season of resolution. The war has paused — but it has not ended. The inflation has arrived — but it has not peaked. The talks have begun — but they have not concluded.

We not mistake a pause for a finish line. We use the breathing room wisely: to reassess, to reposition, to plan for what comes next — not to declare victory before the work is done.

Rest this weekend. Pray for the peacemakers in Islamabad. We will be watching and we will be here Monday with whatever the weekend brings.

Six weeks and one day ago, this war was a surprise.

Today, we close a week where the Dow posted its best weekly performance in nearly a year — and yet the Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open, inflation just printed its hottest month of gasoline prices since 1967, and the Vice President of the United States is flying to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran.

This is what a season of transition looks like. Genuinely better than the worst fears. Still far from resolution.

Those who have read every issue of Bread & Bull since February 28 understands the full picture, not just the headline. They know why gasoline prices rose 21% in March. They know why Core CPI matters more than headline CPI right now. They know what to watch for in Islamabad tomorrow. And they know that April 22 is the next real test.

That clarity, earned through staying informed every single week, is the edge. Not a hot tip. Not a lucky trade. Just the discipline to understand what is actually happening and why it matters.

Have a restful weekend. We will be watching Islamabad.

Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Stay grounded.

Nathan Grey
Senior Editor
Bread & Bull