Good morning,

Welcome to the Monday Week Ahead Edition of Bread & Bull.

Today is Presidents Day, and U.S. markets are closed. But pauses like this are often when professionals step back, reassess positioning, and prepare for the next wave of data, earnings, and macro signals.

This week brings key inflation data, continued earnings guidance, and fresh Federal Reserve messaging… all of which could shape market direction into late February.

Today’s issue focuses on what matters most this week and where smart capital is likely watching next.

“The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.”
— Proverbs 22:3

Preparation is rarely exciting in the moment. But it’s what protects long-term outcomes.

Even with macro uncertainty, money continues moving toward areas investors believe represent the next decade of productivity and stability. Keep an eye on:

U.S. retail sales were flat in December, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending as households reduced purchases of vehicles and other big-ticket items. This stagnation suggests that consumer demand may be cooling, which could impact economic growth in the coming months.

Cisco Systems reported a 10% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q2 FY 2026, totaling $15.3 billion. The growth was largely attributed to a surge in AI infrastructure orders, with $2.1 billion in orders from hyperscalers. The company also raised its full-year AI orders outlook to over $5 billion, highlighting the growing demand for AI-driven networking solutions.

According to a report by Dell’Oro Group, global spending on data center infrastructure is expected to hit $1.7 trillion by 2030. This projection is fueled by significant investments from major cloud service providers and the increasing demand for AI capabilities, signaling a robust expansion in data center development.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman is scheduled to deliver prerecorded remarks at the 2026 Banking Outlook Conference on February 19. Her insights are anticipated to provide guidance on the Federal Reserve's supervisory priorities and the banking sector's outlook for the year ahead.

Major Indexes (Last Close)
• S&P 500: ~6,950
• Nasdaq Composite: ~23,500
• Dow Jones: ~49,200

Volatility
• VIX: ~15–16 range

Rates
• 10-Year Treasury: ~3.70%
• Fed Funds Range: 5.25% – 5.50%

Energy
• WTI Crude: ~$70–72
• Brent Crude: ~$74–76

Gold

Silver

📊 Earnings revisions + forward outlook commentary
📈 Inflation vs bond yield reaction
🏦 Federal Reserve tone + policy messaging
🪙 Precious metals reaction to macro + currency shifts

• PPI (Producer Price Index) — Later this week
• Retail Sales Data — Signals consumer strength or slowdown
• Housing / Manufacturing Data — Helps confirm growth momentum

➡ Why it matters:
Inflation data continues driving rate expectations and rate expectations are still driving equity multiples.

Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Stay grounded.

Nathan Grey
Publisher
Bread & Bull