April is over. And it was extraordinary.

The S&P 500 gained more than 10% in a single month — its best performance since November 2020. The Nasdaq hit multiple all-time highs. Eighty-eight percent of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates. Azure grew 40%. Google Cloud grew 63%. AWS delivered its fastest growth in 15 quarters. Apple beat last night and is up 4% today. And core PCE hit 3.2% — the highest since November 2023. And Brent crude briefly touched $126 a barrel on Thursday — its highest since the war began — before falling sharply today on a new Iranian peace proposal.

That is the paradox that defines May 1, 2026: the best monthly stock market performance in six years, sitting on top of the hottest inflation reading in over two years, powered by an economy growing at 2.0% while a war keeps the world's most critical oil corridor partially closed.

Moody's top economist said this morning that valuations may be diverging from economic reality. The Bank of England's deputy governor said last week that markets are overly complacent. But we know that both the bulls and the bears have genuinely compelling cases right now.

Let's close the month properly.

Reuters reports Elon Musk filed secretly. Barron's says it's being finalized behind closed doors. CNBC just revealed 21 banks - including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley - are competing for a role in what Wall Street is calling 'Project Apex,' a potential $1.75 trillion listing Bloomberg has dubbed the biggest of all time.

Dr. Mark Skousen, Macroeconomic Strategist at The Oxford Club, says a pre-IPO 'backdoor' entry still exists - and nearly 15,000 investors have already accessed his free recommendation. June is the reported target date, and the window is narrowing.

Get Dr. Skousen's free SpaceX pre-IPO recommendation before June

Sponsored by The Oxford Club

Apple was the last Magnificent Seven company to report. And it delivered the cleanest beat of the entire earnings season.

Revenue of $111.18 billion beat the $105.9 billion consensus by more than $5 billion. EPS of $2.01 beat estimates comfortably. Services revenue of $30.98 billion — the highest-margin segment in Apple's entire business — grew 12% year-over-year and came in above expectations. iPhone revenue was driven by what CEO Tim Cook called "extraordinary" demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. Greater China revenue, which had been a persistent concern, came in stronger than feared.

The stock is up 4% today and the market is responding correctly. Here is the broader significance of Apple's quarter for the faithful steward: Apple is the most widely held stock in America. It sits in virtually every 401(k), every index fund, and every retirement portfolio. When Apple beats cleanly on revenue, earnings, and its highest-margin segment simultaneously, it is not just a tech story. It is a consumer story. It is a signal that the American household — even under $4.30/gallon gas, even with a 3.2% core PCE reading, even with 63 days of war — is still opening its wallet for premium products.

That is not a trivial data point. It is the most important consumer signal of the month.

For our portfolio: we have been watching for the right entry on Apple. The post-earnings 4% move is not a clean entry. We are adding Apple to the watch list at $195-200 on any pullback.

Thursday's data package was the most consequential macroeconomic release of the year. Here is the full picture.

Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized — missing the 2.2% consensus but representing a dramatic recovery from Q4 2025's revised 0.5%. The economy did not contract. That is the most important sentence of the GDP release. A negative print would have been the first negative quarter since the pandemic and would have defined the entire policy debate for months. Instead the economy grew, albeit slower than hoped.

The deceleration is entirely traceable to consumer spending, which came in at 1.6% versus the 1.9% estimate. That is the energy squeeze beginning to show in the official data. When Americans pay $4.30 at the pump and $5.45 for diesel, they spend less on everything else. The squeeze is now in the GDP data.

Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. That is the highest reading since November 2023. The headline PCE was 3.5% year-over-year. These are not ambiguous numbers. Inflation is above target, accelerating, and now confirmed by the Fed's own preferred measure.

The Employment Cost Index came in at 0.9% — above the 0.8% expected. Wages are growing faster than the Fed's target rate of inflation. That is structurally inflationary. And initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 — a cycle low. The labor market is not breaking.

Here is the honest macro picture heading into May: the U.S. economy is growing (2.0%), inflation is rising (3.2% core PCE), the labor market is tight (189K claims), and wages are accelerating (0.9% ECI). That is not stagflation. But it is the closest we have been to a genuine policy trap since 2022. The Fed cannot cut into this data. It cannot hike into a 2.0% growth environment with consumer spending already decelerating. It is precisely the impossible position Powell described at Harvard in March — and now the data confirms it.

Moody's Mark Zandi said this morning: valuations may be diverging from economic reality. At a forward P/E of 20.9 — above both the 5- and 10-year averages — with core PCE at 3.2% and the Strait of Hormuz still partially closed, that concern is legitimate and deserves to be in every steward's framework.

Thursday produced the most violent single-session oil move since the war began. And Friday produced one of the most significant diplomatic signals in weeks.

On Thursday, Axios reported that CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper briefed President Trump on new military options for Iran. That single report sent Brent crude surging from $108 to briefly above $126 — its highest level since the conflict began, and within range of the all-time oil price record. WTI surged above $110. California gasoline hit $6 per gallon — a 30% increase since the war started. The UAE's exit from OPEC effective today added structural supply uncertainty on top of the geopolitical spike.

Then today — in the now-familiar pattern — oil reversed sharply.

Reports emerged this morning that Iran sent a response through Pakistani mediators to the latest U.S. amendments to a draft peace agreement. Trump told reporters: "No one knows the status of the talks aside from myself and a handful of others" — language the market read as confirmation that private negotiations are advancing despite the public stalemate. Brent fell back toward $112-115. The Russell 2000 is up 2.21% today. Oil-sensitive consumer names are recovering.

Here is the structural reality that this week's $126 spike and today's pullback together confirm: the oil market is now operating in a regime of extreme binary risk. An extended blockade with military escalation pushes Brent toward $130-140. A deal crashes it below $80. Every portfolio decision made between now and a permanent resolution has to hold both of those outcomes simultaneously in view.

For our energy positions: we trimmed in mid-April. We have maintained a core XOM and CVX position. Thursday's spike to $126 validated that decision. Today's pullback on the Iran proposal is a reminder that the exit from energy will be swift and violent when it comes — just as Wednesday's 17% crash in early April was. We are watching for the right moment to trim further.

Here is one of the most important stories of the week that got buried under Apple and GDP headlines.

Exxon and Chevron both beat Wall Street's quarterly earnings expectations this week. Both stocks are up on the year. And both reported sharply lower profits than a year ago. Exxon's net income declined 45%. Chevron's fell 36%.

How is that possible? It is the paradox of the integrated oil major in a war-driven oil spike. Yes, Brent averaged above $100 for most of Q1. But Exxon and Chevron's refining operations — which buy crude and sell refined products like gasoline and jet fuel — were squeezed by the same supply disruption that lifted the crude price. Refinery margins compressed. Production volumes from Gulf operations were disrupted. The war that lifted oil prices also damaged the infrastructure that the major oil companies use to turn crude into profits.

This is the nuance that most financial coverage missed: not all energy companies benefit equally from $100+ oil. The exploration and production pure plays benefit directly. The integrated majors — with refining and marketing operations — face a more complicated picture. That distinction matters for anyone holding energy exposure heading into May.

For our XOM and CVX positions: the beat on estimates despite lower profits tells us management is executing well under difficult conditions. We are holding. But the 45% and 36% profit declines are a reminder that the energy trade is not as simple as "oil up = energy stocks up."

"In the day of prosperity be joyful, and in the day of adversity consider: God has made the one as well as the other." — Ecclesiastes 7:14

We used this verse on the morning the Islamabad talks collapsed. We use it again today — because today is a day of genuine prosperity, and the Preacher's wisdom applies equally in both directions.

April was the best month for markets since 2020. Apple beat cleanly. The AI Revolution confirmed its revenue story in a single week. The economy grew. The ceasefire held. A new Iranian proposal arrived this morning.

And yet — core PCE is at 3.2%. Oil hit $126 two days ago. The Strait is still not fully open. The forward P/E is above historical averages. And tomorrow Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO takes the stage for the first time with $400 billion in cash and an uncertain world to deploy it into.

The faithful steward does not become complacent in prosperity any more than they despair in adversity. They hold both seasons with the same disciplined clarity. They take gains where gains are due. They maintain hedges that remain relevant. They stay informed about what the scoreboard is and is not telling them.

April rewarded patience and discipline. May will test them again. The work of stewardship is never finished — only practiced.

The best month for markets since 2020 is behind us. Apple has reported. The Magnificent Seven have all spoken. The GDP data confirms the war is biting into consumer spending. The inflation data confirms the pipeline is filling. And Iran sent a new proposal today that sent oil lower and gave markets one more reason to believe the worst is behind us.

May now opens with the same extraordinary tension that has defined every week since February 28: genuinely strong fundamentals sitting on top of genuinely unresolved risks. The faithful steward who has been with us through all sixty-two days of this conflict arrives at May 1 with something that cannot be bought: a framework. An understanding of what is driving every number on the screen. A set of positions sized to survive being wrong. A vocabulary for making sense of what comes next.

That is what Bread & Bull was built for. That is what sixty-two issues have delivered since the beginning of the war.

May will bring April's nonfarm payrolls, Kevin Warsh's confirmation, AMD and Palantir earnings, Berkshire's capital deployment decision, and whatever Iran's proposal produces in Islamabad. We will be here for every day of it.

Have a restful weekend. Watch Berkshire tomorrow. The work resumes Monday.

Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Stay grounded.

Nathan Grey
Senior Editor
Bread & Bull